In my role as editor of the e-weekly news from ERA, I end up reading a lot of articles about retailing statistics (I know, heady, glamorous stuff) and there are two things that keep popping up: retail sales generally are growing at around 4.8 percent while online purchases are making up a bigger percentage of sales this holiday season (20 percent to $39 billion, according to Jupiter Research). If you extrapolate that to figure out total holiday sales, we know that Americans will be spending $195 billion. But there is one factor that is lurking in the background that throws the whole equation into turmoil. Thirty-three percent of consumers planned to buy gift cards to the tune of a staggering total of $26.3 billion

You may be asking yourself, “Why should that matter?” Well, for one thing, $26.3 billion is not being recorded as part of the holiday shopping season, because that revenue is not recognized until the gift cards are redeemed. Or to look at it another way, the actual total collected by retailers if you throw in the gift card number will be $221.3 billion. So if $195 billion without gift cards represents a 4.8 percent increase, the math says that $221.3 billion represents a 19 percent increase in revenues over last year. Of course, that doesn’t include gift cards from last year. So while the analysis of the holiday shopping season is all glum and foreboding, the nay saying should be taken with a $26.3 billion grain of salt. (more…)

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