When it comes to the hard declines that almost every retailing campaign is going to endure, a forecast of bad debt is always established prior to launch to gain an idea of what the potential profitability will be. For the receivables themselves however, would a competent forecast in order to derive the ultimate work strategy towards recovery be as useful? The answer: Absolutely.
Measuring factors such as demographics, geographies, socio-economics and applying other predictive probability metrics is going to allow the proper strategy for both the lettering and calling to be as effective and impactful as possible. More importantly, if you can say that ten times fast you can surely follow the rest of the formula!
As an example: If I were to take a group of debtors that owe an average balance of $150 each and break down their respective state residence and compare that to historical data on the same type of balance within the same geographic location, I now have a better understanding of who will probably pay what over what time frame. If I further my analysis and add other probabilities such as median income and median debt to income ratio within that geography I can now begin to create a tier-level effect and a resulting rank ordering of a portfolio of debtors. Working that ranking allows more recovery, faster and smarter.
Where this all sounds potentially overwhelming and even almost unnecessary to the untrained eye, I assure you it is a very effective approach towards maximizing recovery of the receivables.Â
A $150 bill may not sound like much, but multiply that by several thousand debtors who have hard declined your campaign and I would imagine a very mathematical, almost scientific approach, towards hundreds of thousands of dollars owed becomes much appreciated. It can make the difference between a 10 percent return and a 20 percent return.
My question always is, if we take so much time to test, analyze and measure the campaign prior to making the bulk of our advertising, manufacturing and operational investment, why don’t we approach the money owed with the same cautious and calculated approach?Â
Come to think of it, this is America. We see the caloric value of the cheeseburger is 1270 but we order and eat it anyway! I say we change our thinking just a little bit; maybe we can shed some pounds and recover more money all at the same time?
When choosing an agency to partner with for the recovery of your receivables, make sure to inquire about the quantitative decision making tools they use or don’t use for their work strategy.
Louis DiGioia is a leading expert and analyst for the recovery of consumer receivables. He can be reached at ldigioia@retrievalmasters.com or 914-592-0055.Â
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